Nottingham Forest have reportedly made a £70million bid for Brentford striker Igor Thiago.
My immediate reaction?
Forest are absolutely right to want him.
But £70m wouldn’t be enough for me.
In fact, if I were Brentford, my position would be very simple: Igor Thiago is not for sale unless his replacement has already been secured — and if you are serious about testing that stance, the conversation starts at £100m plus.
That might sound like an enormous valuation.
I don’t think it is.
Igor Thiago is already one of the Premier League’s best strikers
Thiago scored 22 Premier League goals for Brentford last season.
Twenty-two.
Only Erling Haaland scored more.
This isn’t a striker being valued on potential after one good month or somebody arriving from another league whose game may or may not translate to English football.
Thiago has already proved that he can score goals in the Premier League.
He has the physicality to bully defenders, he can occupy centre-backs, he gives Brentford a focal point and, at 25, there should still be plenty more to come.
For me, he would improve virtually every side in the Premier League.
I genuinely think he could walk into the starting XI at clubs such as Arsenal and Chelsea.
If Chelsea had the opportunity to sign him, I’d certainly want him. João Pedro is a terrific player, but Thiago would provide genuine competition and a completely different type of centre-forward.
That tells you the level I think we’re talking about.
Brazil barely using Thiago at the World Cup was a mistake
Thiago’s quality was also why I was surprised we saw so little of him for Brazil at the World Cup.
He started their opening game against Morocco but wasn’t used again as Brazil eventually went out to Norway in the round of 16.
I think he could have improved them.
When you’ve got a striker capable of scoring 22 goals in arguably the strongest domestic league in the world, while giving you that much physical presence through the middle, it’s a pretty useful option to have.
Brazil clearly had other ideas.
Brentford certainly shouldn’t undervalue what they’ve got.
Photo: Bryan Berlin / WikiPortraits via Wikimedia Commons — CC BY-SA 4.0
Why £100m for Igor Thiago isn’t ridiculous
Transfer fees aren’t simply about asking how much a player is worth in isolation.
You have to ask what that player is worth to the selling club.
That’s the key with Thiago.
Brentford finished ninth last season and have started this campaign by beating Tottenham 3-0.
They should be looking upwards.
Selling arguably their most important attacking player days before the transfer window closes would make that much harder.
And then comes the biggest question of all:
Who replaces him?
It’s difficult enough for any Premier League club to find a proven goalscorer.
For a club such as Brentford, attracting a striker who has already demonstrated that he can score 20-plus Premier League goals is even harder.
You could bank £70m and still end up considerably worse.
That’s why I’d have absolutely no interest in selling Thiago until Brentford had a replacement lined up who they genuinely believed could perform at a similar level.
Otherwise, what’s the point?
Brentford hold almost all the cards
Thiago signed a new contract earlier this year keeping him at Brentford until 2031, with the club holding an option for another season.
That gives Brentford enormous negotiating power.
There’s no contract situation forcing their hand and no financial reason why they should accept the first huge offer that lands on the table.
Of course, contracts don’t solve everything.
We’ve seen enough transfers over the years to know that if a player decides he wants to leave, keeping him can become increasingly difficult.
Alexander Isak is a recent example of how quickly a seemingly strong contractual position can become more complicated once the player himself wants a move.
If Thiago suddenly decided Nottingham Forest was where he desperately wanted to be, Brentford would have a situation to manage.
But even then, they shouldn’t be bullied into accepting £70m.
Nottingham Forest aren’t mad for trying
I actually like the move from Forest’s perspective.
Chris Wood has been an excellent Premier League striker, but at 34 he obviously isn’t going to be Forest’s long-term number nine.
Thiago could be.
He’d also join another Brazilian striker in Igor Jesus, giving Forest some really interesting attacking options.
So I don’t look at the reported £70m offer and think Forest have lost their minds.
Quite the opposite.
They’re targeting one of the best proven strikers they could realistically try to sign.
The issue is that I don’t see Forest as an obvious step upwards for Thiago.
Right now, moving from Brentford to Nottingham Forest feels more like a sideways move.
It could be a brilliant signing for Forest without necessarily being a brilliant move for the player.
If Thiago produces another season anywhere close to the last one, clubs competing for the Premier League and Champions League will continue looking at him.
Why rush?
£70m sounds huge until Brentford have to replace 22 goals
That’s ultimately where I come back to.
People will look at £70m and understandably think Brentford should take the money.
I look at the player they’d be losing.
Twenty-two Premier League goals.
A physically dominant centre-forward.
Premier League proven.
Still only 25.
Under contract potentially until 2032.
And crucially, extraordinarily difficult for Brentford to replace.
Put all of that together and, for me, Igor Thiago is a £100m-plus player to Brentford.
Forest are absolutely right to ask the question.
Brentford should be just as comfortable saying no.
Unless they’ve already found the man capable of replacing him, I wouldn’t sell Igor Thiago at any price.
And if Forest are genuinely determined to change their minds?
Come back with £100m-plus and then we can start talking.